Moderna reported third-quarter revenue of $1.31 billion, up 29%, and posted net income of $162 million, or 38 cents per share, compared with a net loss of $200 million, or 51 cents per share, a year earlier. It also raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 15% to 25%, up from its previous guidance of up to 10%. Those are strong numbers, and they deserve to be read as more than a single good quarter.
CEO Stéphane Bancel credited two drivers: the full-year impact of the next-generation mRNA Covid vaccine, which won U.S. approval in May 2025, and geographic expansion in Canada, the U.K. and Asia. The breakdown matters. Revenue was $780 million in the U.S. and $533 million in international markets, so the international share is substantial. Bancel also said cost reductions helped turn the quarter profitable. Diversifying revenue across regions and lowering costs at the same time is the kind of discipline investors should want to see from a company that has spent years in the red.
Still, the report leaves room for caution. Bancel himself described the new stand-alone flu shot's launch in 2026 as limited, and the Covid business is seasonal, with contracts typically set in the first quarter. A forecast built partly on products that are still early in their commercial life is an estimate, not a settled result. Investors should treat the raised outlook as a hopeful projection that the next few quarters must confirm.
The stock story is the bigger concern. Moderna's shares have risen more than 700% this year, largely on optimism about its personalized cancer vaccine candidate. The late-stage melanoma data, developed with Merck and used alongside Keytruda, was positive, yet shares were battered after part of the data leaked on social media before investigators could present it. Bancel called the reaction surprising. The episode shows how much of the valuation rests on expectations for a product that has not yet reached the market.
My recommendation is simple. Management should keep reporting regional revenue and launch timing clearly, so shareholders can separate durable sales from one-time government deliveries and early launches. Investors should judge Moderna on whether the quarterly results and the cancer program keep matching the optimism, not on a single strong print. The quarter earned respect; the valuation still needs proof.