Automakers face a tougher outlook for 2027 as costs rise and the market tightens, according to CNBC reporting.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy said in an investor note that "rising inflation, continued China pressure, affordability concerns in the U.S., and a flat global production outlook suggest another year of limited earnings growth." RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said the outlook is "a little bit more optimistic in the U.S. and then very pessimistic in Europe."
Ford Motor expects next year's results to be in line with 2026. General Motors CEO Mary Barra said she believes 2027 "will be another strong year and better than 2026," assuming customer demand stays strong and cost pressures ease. GM CFO Paul Jacobson said the company faces possible inflationary costs that could create another $2 billion headwind in 2027, citing commodity inflation, logistics and DRAM chips.
European automakers Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW reduced their 2026 earnings forecasts, citing U.S. tariffs, Chinese competition and rising costs. BMW said restructuring would reduce its automotive pretax margin by 2.5 percentage points this year. Hyundai Motor cut its 2026 wholesale target to 4 million vehicles and lowered its operating-margin target to 5.5% to 6.5%. Toyota raised its full-year operating income forecast by 500 billion yen, about $3.2 billion, citing a weaker yen and strong U.S. hybrid demand.
GlobalData expects global light-vehicle production of about 90.96 million units in 2026, down 2.1% from last year, and an increase of less than 1% in 2027.
Cox Automotive reported that the average transaction price of a new U.S. vehicle in September was more than $50,500, just short of the record $50,614 set in December 2025. The typical new-vehicle payment reached $776 a month in September, the highest since December 2023, according to Cox. Cox chief economist Jeremy Robb described the economy, buyer ability and borrowing costs as cautionary "yellow lights," while credit availability and employment conditions were "green lights."